Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
